Market forecasts are being adjusted downwards as analysts grapple with economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s trade actions and potential growth slowdowns. Major institutions are reassessing outlooks for benchmarks like the S&P 500.
Citi Leads Market Forecast Downgrades Amid Tariff Concerns
Reflecting these headwinds, Citi significantly cut its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 5,800 (from 6,500), citing tariff impacts and macro weakness. Strategist Scott Chronert also reduced the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $255 (from $270).
This policy uncertainty fuels market volatility and justifies lower valuations, according to Citi. While their base case is lowered, Citi still sees a potential range for the index between 4,700 (pessimistic) and 6,400 (optimistic) by end-2025.
Wider Trend of Forecast Adjustments
| Institution | Strategist | New S&P 500 Target (2025) | Key Reasons Cited |
| Goldman Sachs | David Kostin | 5,700 | Earnings/valuation revisions, recession risk |
| RBC Capital Markets | Lori Calvasina | 5,550 | Broader concerns |
This reflects a growing analyst consensus on the challenging outlook.
President Trump’s clarification on tech tariffs offers little relief; while exempt from *new* levies, items like smartphones remain subject to existing 20% tariffs (linked to fentanyl) and are just moved to a different category.
The ultimate economic consequences of the tariffs remain uncertain, significantly impacting fundamental analysis and sector performance.
Maxwell Reed is the first editor of Cryptovista360. He loves technology and finance, which led him to crypto. With a background in computer science and journalism, he simplifies digital currency complexities with storytelling and humor. Maxwell began following crypto early, staying updated with blockchain trends. He enjoys coffee, exploring tech, and discussing finance’s future. His motto: “Stay curious and keep learning.” Enjoy the journey with us!