Fed Rate Cut Forecast: Will Economic Slowdown Trigger June Action?

The current economic climate suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates at its next meeting. However, should fears of an economic downturn escalate, the central bank might begin a series of rapid rate cuts, potentially starting in June.

Market expectations have changed significantly. Futures markets now indicate the Fed might implement a 25-basis-point cut in the middle of the year, followed by another later on, instead of initiating easing measures in May. Market participants generally still foresee a total of three rate reductions throughout 2025.

Impact of Policy Signals

Recent statements from President Donald Trump have further complicated the situation. His remarks about a “transitional period” in his administration’s tariff policy with various countries have inadvertently fostered a more cautious market sentiment. This change in tone has resulted in a noticeable decrease in U.S. stock prices and government bond yields, as investors brace for a potential economic slowdown.

Views from Market Experts

In a recent analysis, Tim Duy, the chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, stressed that if either the labor market or financial conditions begin to decline substantially, policymakers may need to address inflation risks more decisively. Duy cautioned that these vulnerabilities could compel the Fed to reassess its monetary policy stance sooner than anticipated, particularly given the changing effects of current tariff policies.

Projected Rate Cut Timeline

Month	Projected Adjustment
June	25 basis-point reduction
July	Additional 25 basis-point reduction

These revised forecasts highlight a broader expectation that monetary policy will likely ease only if economic indicators deteriorate. As market participants analyze these developments, they will be closely monitoring further signals from the Federal Reserve and the administration’s adjustments to trade policy.