Recent trade actions initiated by the administration of President Donald Trump, particularly the imposition of new tariffs, are sending ripples through global markets. These policies, coupled with ongoing trade discussions with China, have heightened market volatility and spurred intense speculation about the future direction of commodity prices.
This environment has led market observers to reconsider the possibility of an emerging commodity supercycle. Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategist at BNP Paribas Fortis, suggests that such a cycle was already on the horizon, but recent tariff measures under President Trump have significantly strengthened this outlook. Gijsels anticipates this could potentially be the most significant supercycle in decades.
Metals Poised for Significant Gains
According to Gijsels, certain assets are crucial in the current climate. “You need gold, because gold is a real asset. You also need silver and copper,” he stated. BNP Paribas projects gold could reach $4,000 per ounce in the coming years. Silver, which Gijsels notes has “lagged significantly,” is seen as having potential upside of up to 59%. Copper’s prospects are viewed even more bullishly, with Gijsels suggesting its price could potentially double or even triple from current levels. Recent trading saw spot copper contracts around $4.64 per pound.
Agricultural Commodities Influenced by Climate and Demographics
The potential upswing isn’t uniform across all commodities. Gijsels specifically excluded cobalt and nickel from his bullish forecast. However, he anticipates rising prices for coffee and cocoa, attributing this primarily to climate change impacts. He highlighted the supply chain vulnerability, noting that “51% of cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast.” Looking further ahead, Gijsels predicts that population growth will be a key driver pushing soft commodity prices higher over the long term.
Tariff Impacts on Supply Chains and Consumers
Pat Kennedy, co-founder of AllSource Investments, emphasized the broad impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, doubting most companies’ ability to absorb the costs fully. “Before the manufacturing lines are the materials and commodities used to make products,” Kennedy explained. He foresees price increases across a range of inputs, including steel, aluminum, rare earths, agricultural goods, chemicals, and textiles. Kennedy warned, “The current tariff scenario is unlikely to disappear soon. Prices will need constant upward revision.” Immediate effects are also expected on consumer goods like laptops, smartphones, clothing, toys, and food, with Kennedy estimating that “at least half the cost of the tariffs will be passed on to the consumer.”
Differing Perspectives on Sustained Commodity Boom
While the supercycle narrative gains traction, not all analysts foresee a uniformly positive or sustained impact. BMI analysts, in a recent note, projected moderate price increases for several commodities into 2025, although they cautioned that the ongoing trade conflict complicates the overall demand outlook.
BMI Commodity Price Projections for 2025
| Commodity | Projected Increase |
| Coffee | +3.2% |
| Corn | +3.4% |
| Copper | +7.9% |
| Tin | +5.8% |
| Gold | +29.7% |
However, André Castro Silva, an economics professor at Nova School of Business and Economics, expressed skepticism. He views it as unlikely that a prolonged trade dispute would generate widespread, lasting positive effects across the entire commodity market.
Maxwell Reed is the first editor of Cryptovista360. He loves technology and finance, which led him to crypto. With a background in computer science and journalism, he simplifies digital currency complexities with storytelling and humor. Maxwell began following crypto early, staying updated with blockchain trends. He enjoys coffee, exploring tech, and discussing finance’s future. His motto: “Stay curious and keep learning.” Enjoy the journey with us!