Market analysts are observing a significant surge in optimism regarding the potential approval of a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) specifically tracking Cardano (ADA). This heightened anticipation is primarily centered around an upcoming decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning a major proposal.
According to data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a Cardano spot ETF receiving regulatory approval in 2025 has climbed to 64%. This marks a substantial 54% rise in positive sentiment since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing market confidence in the prospect of such an investment product becoming available.
SEC Decision Nears
A pivotal date for this outlook is May 29th. This is the deadline by which the SEC is expected to issue a ruling on Grayscale’s proposal for a Cardano ETF. The financial market is closely monitoring whether the commission will approve, reject, or further postpone its decision, recognizing the significant impact this could have on ADA’s market standing.
Driving some of this renewed confidence is a perceived shift within the SEC itself. The appointment of Paul Atkins to a key position is often viewed as pro-crypto by industry observers. His presence has bolstered expectations that a more favorable regulatory outcome for assets like ADA could be on the horizon, contributing to the increased probability seen in prediction markets. The SEC formally acknowledged and commenced the review process for Grayscale’s proposal to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Cardano Trust on the NYSE Arca back on February 24th, initiating the standard 45-day review period concluding on May 29th.
Cardano ETF Landscape
While numerous crypto-linked ETF applications are currently under SEC consideration – reportedly 72 in total – only two are specifically focused on Cardano. These are the Grayscale ETF proposal and the Tuttle Capital 2X Cardano ETF, the latter utilizing a leveraged approach. Successful approval of either would represent a significant milestone for Cardano, potentially facilitating broader institutional investment and enhancing the ecosystem’s perceived legitimacy.
Separately, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently addressed allegations raised on May 7th by NFT artist Masato Alexander. The artist claimed Hoskinson used privileged access during the 2021 Allegra hard fork to transfer unclaimed ICO tokens. Hoskinson has strongly denied these accusations, stating that nearly all ICO tokens were correctly redeemed.
ADA’s Market Snapshot
In terms of market performance, ADA was trading around $0.74 at the time of this report. It registered a modest daily dip of 0.5% and a sharper weekly decline exceeding 7%. Despite recent price softness, the token remains positioned above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, generally indicating an underlying positive trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50.45, suggesting a neutral momentum balance, while the Fear & Greed Index registers a high 71, reflecting elevated, albeit contained, market confidence or “greed.”
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