Bitcoin Price Prediction: Tephra Digital Sees $185,000 by 2026 on Macro Correlations

Investment firm Tephra Digital projects Bitcoin could surge significantly, potentially reaching valuations between $167,000 and $185,000 by late 2025 or the first half of 2026. This ambitious forecast is rooted in an analytical framework that observes Bitcoin’s historical correlations with two key macroeconomic indicators: the M2 money supply and the price of gold, each exhibiting distinct lag effects on the cryptocurrency’s valuation.

• Tephra Digital forecasts Bitcoin to reach between $167,000 and $185,000.
• The projections are for late 2025 or the first half of 2026.
• The analysis relies on historical correlations with M2 money supply and gold.
• An M2 correlation model projects Bitcoin at $167,000 with a 102-day lag.
• A gold correlation model suggests Bitcoin could hit $185,000 with a 200-day lag.
• Some analysts express caution regarding a potential market correction in September.

Correlation with M2 Money Supply

Tephra Digital’s analysis employs two primary correlation models. One model tracks Bitcoin’s relationship with the M2 money supply, noting a 102-day lag. Under this scenario, assuming a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 330%, Bitcoin is projected to reach $167,000. The expansion of the M2 money supply typically signifies an increase in circulating liquidity within the economy, often leading investors to channel this capital into riskier assets in pursuit of higher yields. Furthermore, the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates could further stimulate M2 growth, thereby potentially boosting Bitcoin’s price. Market probabilities, as indicated by CME data, placed the likelihood of a September policy easing by the regulator at 99.7%.

Correlation with Gold

A second model examines Bitcoin’s correlation with gold, observing a longer 200-day lag. This pathway suggests Bitcoin could reach $185,000 with a CAGR of 154%. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has shown notable resilience; prior to a market correction in late August 2025, it ranged from 0.1 to 0.25, maintaining an exclusively positive trend since July of that year. Should this positive correlation persist in the medium term, coupled with projected growth in gold’s value, Tephra Digital’s scenario for a significant Bitcoin price increase appears plausible. This perspective aligns with a broader view of Bitcoin’s evolving role within the global financial landscape, as highlighted in a recent post by Tephra Digital on X (formerly Twitter).

Broader Market Perspectives and Supporting Views

The increasing integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial discourse is further underscored by a July 2025 report from WisdomTree, which indicated that Bitcoin’s share in the pool of “hard assets” had reached 8%. This growing proportion suggests a strengthening correlation between the digital asset and broader macroeconomic indicators like M2 and gold. WisdomTree’s report itself offered an even more bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $250,000 and gold to hit $4,000 under conditions of heightened inflation and tightening monetary policies across major economies.

Potential Risks and Considerations

However, not all market participants share this uniformly optimistic view. A segment of analysts has voiced concerns regarding the potential for a significant market correction in September, introducing a note of caution into the predominantly bullish sentiment. While the long-term projections based on macro correlations offer a compelling narrative for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, the near-term volatility and potential for market adjustments remain critical considerations for investors navigating the digital asset space.