Bitcoin Price Prediction: Expert Warns of Slow Decline Below $60,000 Amid Economic Concerns

Market analysts are observing Bitcoin’s current trajectory with caution, noting parallels to previous downturns and suggesting that economic headwinds could prolong the asset’s bearish phase. Unlike sudden market shocks, the prevailing sentiment among some experts points towards a more gradual, sustained pressure on the cryptocurrency’s value, potentially challenging investor resolve over an extended period.

Quinn Thompson, leading the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, anticipates that any decline in Bitcoin might not manifest as a sharp crash but rather as a slow erosion of value. He projects a possible scenario where Bitcoin could dip below the $60,000 mark before the year concludes. Thompson remains skeptical despite occasional optimistic market signals, largely dismissing recent buzz around potential crypto initiatives from the Trump administration, such as a US Sovereign Fund or a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, viewing them primarily as news items lacking immediate, tangible market impact.

Economic Factors Weighing on Bitcoin

Thompson’s cautious stance is rooted in the current economic landscape, heavily influenced by recent policy directions under President Trump. Several key factors contribute to this perspective:

Government Expenditure Adjustments

A significant factor is the administration’s push towards reducing government spending. Spearheaded by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), reportedly under the guidance of Elon Musk, plans aim for substantial cuts to the federal budget. Thompson believes such measures, even if ultimately less severe than initially proposed, could dampen economic growth and negatively affect consumer confidence, creating an unfavorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Immigration Policy and Labor Market

Concerns also stem from the potential consequences of tighter immigration policies. Thompson suggests this could lead to labor shortages and upward pressure on wages. Such a scenario might squeeze corporate profitability, potentially triggering broader economic slowdowns and impacting investor sentiment negatively.

Trade and Tariff Uncertainty

The lack of predictability surrounding tariffs and trade policy adds another layer of concern. Thompson notes that the administration’s inconsistent stance makes it difficult for businesses to forecast future costs reliably. This uncertainty discourages investment and expansion, leading companies to adopt a more cautious approach to hiring and growth, further inhibiting economic momentum.

Monetary Policy Considerations

Monetary policy adds to the complexity. While the Fed has implemented some interest rate reductions recently, Thompson anticipates that any further cuts will be measured and spaced out. The central bank’s primary focus remains on controlling inflation. The apparent coordination between the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary Besant, and President Trump suggests a deliberate and cautious policy path, unlikely to provide the rapid market relief some investors might hope for.

Overall Outlook and Potential Catalysts

Thompson synthesizes these economic pressures into a significant challenge for Bitcoin and other assets sensitive to risk appetite. He observes that the current administration appears more focused on maintaining fiscal discipline than on actively preventing a recession. This implies that the existing economic strategy might persist unless conditions deteriorate dramatically.

Looking ahead, the 2026 midterm elections could potentially trigger policy shifts if economic difficulties become politically untenable. However, Thompson remains skeptical about the likelihood of significant, near-term changes. Consequently, he believes Bitcoin remains exposed to persistent downward pressure stemming from these broader economic factors.