Altcoins Expected to Enter a Severe Downturn in Q3 2025
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cohen has predicted a significant downturn for altcoins during the third quarter of 2025. Citing historical trends, Cohen explains that altcoin price movements are strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s performance. He anticipates a sharp decline in altcoin values over the summer months, followed by a potential recovery around November.
The Role of the TOTAL3 Index
Cohen’s prediction is based on insights from the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. He notes that the TOTAL3/BTC ratio is currently at 0.47. Historically, a drop below 0.27 has often preceded significant market corrections in the altcoin sector. Bitcoin’s price movement will be the deciding factor on whether altcoins follow previous downturn patterns or deviate from them.
Macroeconomic Influences and Investor Sentiment
Cohen also highlights the potential influence of long-term government bond yields, particularly 10-year notes, as indicators of market risk sentiment. If Bitcoin reaches new cycle highs, altcoins could benefit from price increases. However, if Bitcoin’s value declines, rising yields on long-term bonds could trigger further drops in altcoin prices. Past Bitcoin corrections have frequently coincided with increases in these yields, suggesting that broader economic factors will significantly influence market trends.
Looking Ahead
Ultimately, investor sentiment will determine the extent of the altcoin correction. A decrease in confidence for riskier assets could keep altcoins suppressed for an extended period. However, Cohen remains cautiously optimistic about a potential recovery later in the year, driven by renewed speculative interest and changing macroeconomic conditions. He advises traders to closely monitor Bitcoin’s price action, as significant movements in Bitcoin will likely dictate the overall direction of the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.
Maxwell Reed is the first editor of Cryptovista360. He loves technology and finance, which led him to crypto. With a background in computer science and journalism, he simplifies digital currency complexities with storytelling and humor. Maxwell began following crypto early, staying updated with blockchain trends. He enjoys coffee, exploring tech, and discussing finance’s future. His motto: “Stay curious and keep learning.” Enjoy the journey with us!