The recent enactment of the “Big Beautiful Bill” by President Donald Trump on Independence Day is expected to substantially increase the U.S. national debt. This development is under close scrutiny by both financial analysts and cryptocurrency markets. Such significant fiscal expansion, echoing previous stimulus measures, has historically demonstrated a correlation with notable price movements in assets like Bitcoin, leading some market participants to project potential upside for the digital currency.
Projected U.S. National Debt Expansion
Projections indicate that the U.S. national debt could escalate to an unprecedented $40 trillion by 2025. This forecast, brought to attention by The Kobeissi Letter and derived from probabilities analyzed by Kalshi, signifies a dramatic rise from approximately $23.2 trillion at the start of 2020. Such a swift increase in sovereign debt establishes a distinctive fiscal path, prompting market participants to assess its broader economic consequences.
Bitcoin’s Historical Response to Fiscal Stimulus
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a clear positive correlation with periods of heightened U.S. government borrowing. As an illustrative example, when President Trump approved a COVID-19 stimulus package in late 2020, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) appreciated by approximately 38% within a matter of weeks. Should a comparable trend emerge following the enactment of the current “Big Beautiful Bill,” certain analyses propose that Bitcoin’s value could surpass $150,000.
Global Liquidity and M2 Money Supply Dynamics
Beyond domestic fiscal policy, the global M2 money supply represents an additional macroeconomic factor bolstering Bitcoin’s prospects. The global M2 recently attained a new historical peak, exceeding $55.4 trillion. Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated a strong correlation with M2 expansion, generally following its movements with a slight lag. Analyst Rekt Capital has previously highlighted that the M2 supply can continue to grow even after Bitcoin reaches a bull market peak, suggesting a sustained environment of global liquidity. This convergence of expansive U.S. fiscal policy and increasing global monetary aggregates positions Bitcoin for potentially significant movements, echoing its historical reactions to elevated governmental spending and infusions of liquidity.
Maxwell Reed is the first editor of Cryptovista360. He loves technology and finance, which led him to crypto. With a background in computer science and journalism, he simplifies digital currency complexities with storytelling and humor. Maxwell began following crypto early, staying updated with blockchain trends. He enjoys coffee, exploring tech, and discussing finance’s future. His motto: “Stay curious and keep learning.” Enjoy the journey with us!