Anticipation is building within the financial sector regarding the potential introduction of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on XRP within the United States. Both market analysts and institutional players are actively evaluating the ramifications such a financial product could have on Ripple’s native digital currency.
Analyst Perspectives on XRP ETF Potential
Following the regulatory green light for leveraged XRP futures ETFs, optimism for a spot version has gained significant traction. Notably, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has indicated a high likelihood, estimating an 85% chance of approval. Further supporting this outlook, Jeff Kendrick from Standard Chartered projected substantial capital inflows if a spot XRP ETF secures approval. Based on parallels drawn with existing Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick anticipates potential first-year investments ranging between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion.
Regulatory Landscape and Timelines
Several prominent asset management firms, including Bitwise and Grayscale, have formally submitted applications to launch spot XRP ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a final decision deadline set for October 12, 2025. An interesting point raised by Kendrick involves Litecoin (LTC). As a fork of Bitcoin often classified as a commodity, an earlier approval for a Litecoin ETF could potentially establish a significant precedent, paving the way for similar approvals concerning XRP and Solana (SOL).
Market Sentiment
Current market indicators reflect growing confidence, though uncertainty persists. Data gathered from prediction markets like Polymarket suggests a notable probability of approval in the near term. As of recent checks, Polymarket data indicated a 39% chance of approval by July 31st, with this figure rising to 79% by the end of the year. While regulatory hurdles remain, the overall sentiment surrounding the future prospects of an XRP ETF is increasingly positive.
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