The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its economic outlook for the United States, citing concerns over trade policies enacted under the current administration of President Donald Trump. These policies are seen as a primary factor behind the revised, less optimistic forecast for the nation’s economic expansion.
US Growth Forecast Lowered
The IMF significantly reduced its projection for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the upcoming year, 2025. Citing the economic impact of tariffs, the forecast was cut from an anticipated 2.7% increase down to 1.8%. This adjustment reflects the anticipated effects of ongoing trade frictions on economic activity.
These trade measures have also had repercussions on a global scale. Concurrently, the international body decreased its worldwide economic growth projection by 0.5 percentage points, bringing the expected global expansion rate down to 2.8%.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, remarked in the organization’s April report, “The common denominator is that tariffs represent a negative supply shock to the economy imposing them.“
Inflation Expectations Revised Upward
The Fund also addressed inflation within the United States, predicting it will settle at 2.5% by year-end. This represents a 0.4% increase compared to the forecast issued in January.
The IMF attributed this upward revision to several factors: “For the United States, this reflects persistent price dynamics in the services sector, as well as a recent uptick in the price growth of core goods (excluding food and energy) and the supply shock triggered by recent tariffs.“
Potential Dollar Depreciation
Looking further ahead, the IMF suggested potential consequences for the U.S. dollar. The organization noted that the currency “could depreciate in real terms over the medium term if tariffs translate into lower productivity in the U.S. tradable sector compared to its trading partners.“ This highlights the potential long-term efficiency costs associated with the implemented trade barriers.
Summary of Forecast Changes
| Indicator | Previous Forecast (Jan) | Current Forecast (Apr) | Change | Reason Cited |
| US GDP Growth 2025 | 2.7% | 1.8% | -0.9% | Tariffs / Trade Tensions |
| Global GDP Growth | 3.3% (Implied – adjusted from 2.8% + 0.5%) | 2.8% | -0.5% | Tariffs / Trade Tensions |
| US Inflation (Year-End) | 2.1% (Implied – adjusted from 2.5% – 0.4%) | 2.5% | +0.4% | Tariffs, Service Sector Prices, Core Goods Prices |
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