Several macroeconomic factors are converging that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s (BTC) valuation in the coming months. Developments in U.S. fiscal policy, particularly concerning government debt management, alongside shifts in the strength of the dollar, are drawing attention from market analysts and investors looking for clues about the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Potential Boost from Treasury Buybacks
A key factor highlighted by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, is the potential for U.S. Treasury bond buybacks. Hayes suggests these operations could act as a powerful catalyst, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. He referred to this possibility as a “bazooka” for the market.
Hayes has gone as far as suggesting this period might represent a crucial window for investors, stating: “Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k 😉😉😉😉."
Like the Easter bunny, bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce!
Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k 😉😉😉😉.
New essay drops this week about The BBC Bazooka, treasury buy backs.
Yaxhtzee pic.twitter.com/iYCXqGxsws
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 21, 2025
Treasury buybacks are essentially market operations where the Department of the Treasury repurchases previously issued government bonds from the open market. Such actions can increase liquidity within the financial system, assist in managing federal debt profiles, or help stabilize interest rates. Historically, increased liquidity often benefits risk assets, a category that includes Bitcoin.
Dollar Weakness and Monetary Expansion
Other market observers concur that monetary expansion could be a primary driver for Bitcoin throughout 2025. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Asset Analyst at Real Vision, anticipates that growth in the money supply could potentially push BTC’s price above the $132,000 mark before the year concludes. However, concerns about global trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China following tariff announcements by President Donald Trump’s administration, could temper investor enthusiasm until clearer resolutions emerge.
Bitcoin recently experienced a price increase, briefly exceeding $87,700 for the first time in nearly three weeks. This movement coincided with notable weakness in the U.S. dollar. André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, commented, “It looks like Bitcoin is rallying on the back of persistent dollar weakness,“ adding that the dollar index had reached its lowest point since March 2022.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, believes the dollar’s decline enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. “Strong volume and technical confirmation from a breakout of a descending triangle point to a potential test of $90,000, with macro factors like the weak dollar and growing correlation with gold strengthening its profile as a hedge,“ Lee explained.
Institutional Interest Persists
Despite recent market corrections, institutional adoption continues to be a significant factor. Investment firms based in Japan and the United Kingdom have reportedly been allocating substantial capital, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, into Bitcoin. This ongoing flow of institutional money could further fuel Bitcoin’s characteristic four-year market cycles.
Jason Walker, aka “Crypto Maverick,” is the energetic new member of cryptovista360.com. With a background in digital finance and a passion for blockchain, he makes complex crypto topics engaging and accessible. His mix of analysis and humor simplifies volatile market trends. Outside work, Jason explores tech, enjoys spontaneous road trips, and American cuisine. Crypto Maverick is ready to guide you through the ever-changing crypto landscape with insight and a smile.